So neither Fitch nor Yellen see the flattening yield curve as an ominous sign of anything other than exasperated nirp refugees looking for a somewhat less gruesome alternative. And folks hoping the Fed will use the flattening yield curve as an excuse to back off from further rate hikes will likely be disappointed.
"The Normal Yield Curve. Normally the yield curve is upward sloping showing that, all else being equal, a bond (mortgage) with a longer maturity pays a higher yield (rate) than the same bond with a shorter maturity. From the great depression through to today, the yield curve has spent the majority of its time in the shape of a normal upward sloping curve.
And a flattening yield curve. “Mortgage rates declined once again, as concerns about the slowing global economy and status of Brexit continued to drive investors’ demand for U.S. Treasuries,
Despite the dividend looking sustainable at the moment, the flat yield curve and incoming prepayments should. Remember, hope is not an investment strategy. Since the Mortgage REIT Forum is a new.
If recent data is any indication, the U.S. is on track to reap a sterling quarter of growth, but that hasn’t stopped the yield curve from flattening toward an inversion, a precursor to a recession.
A flattening yield curve, on its own, has not been a risk to US equities. In the past 40 years, the S&P has typically risen by a median of 6.6% when the curve was flattening from the current level (next two charts from NDR). The one exception was in 1973: between November 1972 and October 1973, the Fed more than
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The Federal Reserve has been hiking rates and driving the yield curve to a much flatter level. Commercial mortgage REITs are not impacted much by a flattening of the yield curve.
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An inverted yield curve – in which. but the world is not in a good place,” warned chris rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, who said Trump risked “turn [ing] the world upside down.
posted on 05 April 2018. The Yield Curve Is Flattening – What Does That Mean? Written by John O’Donnell, Online Trading Academy. The Chart of the Week. Seven times in the past 50 years the yield.